There were previous governments who were doing nominal depreciations, and in three months, the real exchange rate was basically back up to where it was before. Nothing changed because it just got priced into goods. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · evaluation
In a way, the way you want to think about it is that when China is exporting some certain goods to the rest of the world, if its imports are priced also in dollars, then those inputs that are going into its production function are priced in dollars and sticky in dollars, then you have an incentive to just price in dollars, and your dollar price is not going to move that much because the exchange rate adjustment is not doing much, because an important part of your cost of production is also in dollars. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · evaluation
Growth is there, but it’s coming mainly from mining and agriculture, and much less from the job-intensive sectors—manufacturing—because they’ve also been open to competition now. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · evaluation
In the case of Europe, the way I think about it is, if they can get increasingly to the goal of actually being truly integrated in terms of their product markets, have much less regulation that prevents trade across the borders of countries, then in that case, these are the benefits from having that. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
I think what the Milei administration has done very well compared to the previous administrations is recognize that the problem was fiscal, that as long as Argentina was running the kinds of deficits that they were doing and using monetary financing, basically money printing to pay for it, there was no possibility of getting out of this trap. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
If we think of Australia, which does not have exorbitant privilege, as you know, they ran trade deficits for decades steadily. Tyler Cowen · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
I would say that I think that’s good because, first of all, there is no panacea in terms of saying just because you’re dollarized, you are safe, or you’re a well-managed country. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
Basically, the quantity of trade is inversely proportional to the distance of countries once you adjust for incomes and some other matters. That seems to be another case where the relative price doesn’t matter that much because few people think the gravity equation is about transportation costs. Tyler Cowen · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · evaluation
I think what’s important to recognize is that the invoicing decision itself is not just some Calvo fairy. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
To assume that on a year-to-year basis that if a country is running a trade balance deficit, it should necessarily have a weaker real exchange rate, I think making that tight link would be problematic not just from the theory, but from the theory side and from the empirical side. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
I think that’s something that they could do much faster because if they did that, yes, they would get some more depreciation, but it would be still well within the crawling band. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 23 Sept 2026 · belief
With both antipsychotics and antidepressants, the two main classes of psychotropic drugs that we use, they’re at best partially effective and they don’t work for a significant fraction of patients who are given them. unverified speaker · Lex Fridman Podcast · 17 Sept 2026 · evaluation
We don’t have a psychiatric penicillin for any of the conditions we’re gonna be talking about. That doesn’t mean we can’t do some things that help, but the help is quite limited, and it’s important to understand both the ways in which we have progressed and the limits of that progress, and also to understand that when we treat something, sometimes we create new problems—what we call iatrogenic problems, things caused by the interventions that we use. unverified speaker · Lex Fridman Podcast · 17 Sept 2026 · evaluation
We have something also that the ancients recognized: dementia, the loss, really the loss of our mind, as it were. But then we also have other kinds of disturbance of our mental faculties that generally we think of as more minor, but I don’t want to make light of them because often people suffer from these things, genuinely suffer pretty badly. unverified speaker · Lex Fridman Podcast · 17 Sept 2026 · belief
I think a lot of this is public policy that has really abandoned treatment for the seriously mentally ill, and you see it on the streets of our cities. unverified speaker · Lex Fridman Podcast · 17 Sept 2026 · belief
The categories that we have all become familiar with, that we’re told are real diseases like bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, major depression, are beginning to falter, and we’re beginning to worry about whether those diagnoses are real ways of thinking about the world and may in fact mislead us. Because if we think there’s something called schizophrenia or the schizophrenias, as the inventor of that term put it, if we think there’s something like that and we try to research where it comes from, but that’s not really what’s going on, obviously we’re probably gonna not make the progress we could be making if we had a better diagnostic system. unverified speaker · Lex Fridman Podcast · 17 Sept 2026 · belief
You want to tax people, tax in the broad sense of the term, living in rural areas, if only because it’s much harder to have government help them, right? Tyler Cowen · Conversations with Tyler · 16 Sept 2026 · recommendation
It’s not fair. It shouldn’t be that if you are going to get your knee repaired, it’s because you have Medicare and are good at paperwork. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 16 Sept 2026 · evaluation
The single worst program in my mind is TANF, which is cash welfare and a lot of other things. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 16 Sept 2026 · belief
I think in a high inequality country such as ours, where you still have a lot of people who don’t have smartphones and don’t have computers, that’s why I would be very concerned about the postal service going away. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 16 Sept 2026 · belief
The problem is, even going into the pandemic, every single recession that we have, we have this conversation about how stupid it is that we have these ancient infrastructures, literally, programs running on COBOL, and that states don’t have the right incentive to upgrade service delivery and their digital systems. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 16 Sept 2026 · observation
Ben and David love their index funds. You know, we love Vanguard here. If you had bought the S&P 500 with that same $1,000, instead of $17 million today, you would have $170,000. Ben Gilbert · Acquired · 14 Sept 2026 · preference
Yes, home improvement is just a massive category, way, way bigger than I realized. Ben Gilbert · Acquired · 14 Sept 2026 · evaluation
I built this whole door. I got the blank door from Home Depot. I had to cut it down to size to fit a nonstandard size door opening in my studio. David Rosenthal · Acquired · 14 Sept 2026 · evaluation
Today we will tell the story of how it happened. It is an unlikely story of two guys who got unceremoniously fired from their old jobs with little savings and no retirement funds, who then had a revolutionary idea to build a home improvement store in giant warehouses, five times more square footage than any other hardware store at the time, which seemed risky at best, unthinkable maybe. Ben Gilbert · Acquired · 14 Sept 2026 · commitment
For example, I hadn’t realized before I got into this area that much of the research on sports coaches has been done by business school professors because the questions of leadership that business school professors ask can be answered more easily in sports. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · evaluation
I’m not sure that’s true because it seems there’s a lot of countries that when people get to something like $28,000 per capita income that they just turn much greener, and they clean up their air. Tyler Cowen · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · uncertainty
For 60 years, they’ve got a great track record. What will happen in the next 60 years, I don’t know. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · uncertainty
In fact, after the crisis was over and the Russians and the Americans began to talk to each other, we realized how close we and they had come. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · belief
When her book was published, the very next day, it was Senator, I think, Ribicoff of Connecticut, who announced the next day that he was launching a US government investigation into toxic chemicals. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · belief
Most of the leaders that we think of are the leaders who did things rather than prevented things from happening. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · belief
For the history of Papua New Guinea, really interesting question. I would say no. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 9 Sept 2026 · belief
I think that uh infrastructure buildout uh could be a headwind just relative to to everything going on which may be you know end quote okay because if it was if if infrastructure buildout was not a headwind uh I think capacity for wafers capacity for memory that probably would be a would be a headwind so I think you're going to see a number of different governors if you will not governors of states but different things that are going to throttle the growth of this uh which just expounding for a second I've been on a bunch of panels and I get a lot a lot of questions about AI bubble and when's it going to stop and there's setting aside the valuation bubbles which is a a stock market index component the the bubble in terms of are we over um over supply to demand not even close and I think again that's because the demand is insatial just given the way these models work >> and infrastructure buildout access to wafers access to memory all of that's combining >> uh you mentioned that Um and I think a lot of companies are learning today that um strategic use of the cap table, access to capital in an era where you either need to consume a lot of compute or you need to put a lot of capex i unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 14:14· prediction
say strategic partnerships incredibly early uh whether it's with people inside the supply chain uh people in private equity you the banks the banks themselves it's a different game you know now on one hand semis are kind of back because you you now have a a wave of semiconductor startups u there was a long time where that was just not happening uh investment in the industry now we've got a lot but access to capital is going to be the the the gate for them in terms of how they how they get through that. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 16:27· evaluation
Uh when we think about the verticals that SoftBank's involved with robotics, energy, data center infrastructure, and then you look at the products that ARM has, the only one we've announced so far is the ARM AGI CPU. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 19:40· belief
Does it actually replace? So I think costs need to come down and the business model need to be need to be uh ultimately vetted because another robotic footprints tend to be things like automotive or um certain surgical robots or data or uh excuse me distribution centers right there's a few very sort of bespoke applications that I think are mostly robotic sales today and so that's why I was a little bit curious >> distribution centers for sure I mean that that can ultimately go completely automated right relative to and even to the ultimate to the delivery right uh and and you can question >> to me loosely speaking a a truck that has an autonomous is a robot of sorts. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 24:02· belief
I think there is a to to we were maybe chat about this a bit earlier that there's a fear that AI means job loss and and job loss means for all these things kind of implications. So I think unfortunately >> you think that fear is well grounded or because somewhere it seems like it's only creating jobs. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 29:20· belief
I think there's an enormous amount of interest from the technology industry and the software industry in sort of better understanding the chip supply chain recently. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 1:19· belief
Uh I think that's going to become a much more important muscle uh as we as we go forward because it's one thing to en said another way there's a lot of really great young companies today doing AI chips well-known companies getting tons of funding innovative designs etc etc selling into an industry where the capital requirements are just massive and the relationships with memory vendors is incredibly critical or the relationship with substrate vendors so companies are going to have to be much >> more access to a 3nometer line, a 16 line, advanced packaging line, all of it. unverified speaker · No Priors · 3 Sept 2026 · at 12:12· belief
is like a like any whoever the like whatever you buy you have any questions like there's always a uh kind of a customer service channel and you can you can have a conversation have a chat actually so most of the chat is enabled today is by by AI >> great >> um so we launch this very very carefully because by the end of the day it's nothing about the cost whatever so we want to make sure people are happy and this is more efficient so we always do AB test before we roll out any uh such a services and the the things that today is more than 80% of the customer inquiry is 100% handled by AI and the satisfaction rate is is a is even higher than the the human >> yeah the like the people doing the doing the customer service. unverified speaker · Cheeky Pint · 3 Sept 2026 · at 28:56· evaluation
Okay, this is how they win the US market and this is how they win the China market >> and they bring that >> everything is very optimized for that playbook. So it's very natural for them when they come to the Southeast Asia they just say okay this is our playbook this is work in our home market must be working here and it turn out I think that is a it's not always the case there's always a best practice is uh can be shared across the whole world but uh specifically there's also a lot of a lot of things uh is is very very different and and even like I think being a Singapore company the benefit is at the very very early days we we we have to think about to go to other market is not like just trying to be successful only in Singapore market as a home market. unverified speaker · Cheeky Pint · 3 Sept 2026 · at 10:12· evaluation
You just think about you just describe to AI what you what you are thinking about the arts will be look like what will be the style what will be the character I think AI can help generate a lot >> and uh >> is it making the non-player characters more intelligent too are they able to >> this part is we just talk about the arts okay >> we just talk about the arts so far yeah and and also it's the same as yeah as you you you mentioned this and I don't know how how many people here a gamer like every Tell me if you you I mean I'm I'm telling a little bit secret of the game development is a you you go to play a new game and most of the time you feel you are playing with another human people but actually as a new gamer high chance you're going to play with a bot because it's a we want to make sure uh the new gamers have a good boarding experience. unverified speaker · Cheeky Pint · 3 Sept 2026 · at 31:13· uncertainty
Um, but I'm very excited about this possibility of people taking the open source stuff and then um building their own verticalized language models. And I think 11 Labs, Lovable are starting to realize, hey, backing up the Brinks truck and giving tens of millions of dollars, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, to Frontier Labs and then giving those tokens to our users in a wrapper to provide a service is really dangerous. unverified speaker · This Week in Startups · 2 Sept 2026 · at 1:16:28· prediction
If I believe for example that um you know there's going to be this entirely new race um within the stars and for humanity like I can say okay great um or or AI for example if we believe that AI is inevitable um how does the world work well I know that I don't want to be downstream of a lab for example I know for a fact I don't want to be downstream of a lab I want to be uh investing where the labs are reliant on me right I need to be their their supplier for something and so I think a lot about supply chain I think a lot about um being upstream so that that there's reliance not just from a revenue standpoint but also a learning standpoint because that is how you get your best data is talking to customers. unverified speaker · This Week in Startups · 2 Sept 2026 · at 41:19· prediction
I think you know I I've lived in San Francisco for for nearly 25 years and and this idea that you know San Francisco is back and everyone's coming and everyone's signing leases again. unverified speaker · This Week in Startups · 2 Sept 2026 · at 1:05:49· belief
Um whereas in our case you know we're running the world's largest models and in some ways kind of simple because you know one of our chips has you know order 100 times more memory than one of their chips right so you have two orders of magnitude difference in scale kind of for free right and so I think that's definitely one of the things that was a topic of discussion again independent of of cerebrus um just kind of odd that you know you'd launch a brand new product on on performance numbers of such a small model. unverified speaker · Latent Space · 2 Sept 2026 · at 23:55· belief
He also is involved in San Francisco Standard, but most importantly, from our point of view, Michael has a new and excellent book out called Ausländer: One Family’s Story of Escape and Exile, which I absolutely recommend to you all. Tyler Cowen · Conversations with Tyler · 2 Sept 2026 · recommendation
I think maybe his fascination with it, just like his devotion to Latin, I think drove me away from it. But he had also grown up in an era in Germany where there weren’t very many distractions, and I think the main entertainment of the week, best as I could tell, was going to the synagogue. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 2 Sept 2026 · belief
Then later in life, way later in life, our paths crossed again through a mutual friend and for several years, when our family was in the habit of going to New York to celebrate Thanksgiving with friends, Philip was a mutual friend of the hostess and so for, I don’t know, half a dozen years, we always had Thanksgiving dinner and among the guests was Philip Roth. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 2 Sept 2026 · uncertainty
I think the tougher, more strenuous, grueling works of art that other people would have difficulty living with have many layers to them. unverified speaker · Conversations with Tyler · 2 Sept 2026 · belief
source from podcasts.highsignal.app via High Signal Podcasts public API · api.podcasts.highsignal.app read 15 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Live read of published claims. Withheld shows stay out; unverified speakers are labelled, never guessed.